Podladchikova, T ; Podladchikova, O ; Veronig, A

Talk presented at 16th European Space Weather Week, Liege, Belgium on 2019-11-22

Abstract: Measurements of the solar microwave flux at 10.7 cm by Pentincton Observatory, Canada are widely used as a solar proxy index for the modelling of the upper atmosphere. SIDC currently provides 3-day forecasts for the F10.7 index - based on a manual analysis of the index values during the latest three Carrington rotations. We present recent results on the development of a new autonomous tool, the Self-Adjusted Solar Flux Forecasting (SASFF) http://solwww.oma.be/users/olenapo/F10.7_realtime/). The solar radioflux dynamics is modelled by a non-stationary random walk with a variable drift - and the forecast of the F10.7 index is based on an adaptive Kalman filter model which is used to identify the a priori unknown drift and variance. SASFF provides solar flux forecasts, for the next 3 days, including forecasting uncertainties. It issues alerts when the F10.7 index values are elevated due to the appearance of solar activity events.

Keyword(s): solar microwave radiation, F107, radioflux, space weather
Links: link
Funding: STCE WP ROB A.3/STCE WP ROB A.3/STCE WP ROB A.3