000004299 001__ 4299
000004299 005__ 20191113155638.0
000004299 037__ $$aCTALK-2019-0129
000004299 100__ $$aPodladchikova, T
000004299 245__ $$aDevelopment of adaptive Kalman filter for short-term forecasts of the F30 and F10.7 cm radio flux
000004299 260__ $$c2019
000004299 269__ $$c2019-11-22
000004299 520__ $$aMeasurements of the solar microwave flux at 10.7 cm by Pentincton Observatory, Canada are widely used as a solar proxy index for the modelling of the upper atmosphere. SIDC currently provides 3-day forecasts for the F10.7 index - based on a manual analysis of the index values during the latest three Carrington rotations. We present recent results on the development of a new autonomous tool, the Self-Adjusted Solar Flux Forecasting (SASFF) http://solwww.oma.be/users/olenapo/F10.7_realtime/). The solar radioflux dynamics is modelled by a non-stationary random walk with a variable drift - and the forecast of the F10.7 index is based on an adaptive Kalman filter model which is used to identify the a priori unknown drift and variance. SASFF provides solar flux forecasts, for the next 3 days, including forecasting uncertainties. It issues alerts when the F10.7 index values are elevated due to the appearance of solar activity events.
000004299 536__ $$aSTCE WP ROB A.3/$$cSTCE WP ROB A.3/$$fSTCE WP ROB A.3
000004299 594__ $$aSTCE
000004299 6531_ $$asolar microwave radiation, F107, radioflux, space weather
000004299 700__ $$aPodladchikova, O
000004299 700__ $$aVeronig, A
000004299 773__ $$t16th European Space Weather Week, Liege, Belgium
000004299 8560_ $$felena.podladchikova@observatoire.be
000004299 85642 $$ahttp://www.stce.be/esww2019/program/session_details.php?nr=17
000004299 906__ $$aContributed
000004299 980__ $$aCTALKCONT