000007648 001__ 7648
000007648 005__ 20251114131938.0
000007648 037__ $$aPOSTER-2025-0050
000007648 100__ $$aMillas, Dimitrios
000007648 245__ $$aCross-model comparison and data validation of CME modeling and arrival forecasting tools
000007648 260__ $$c2025
000007648 269__ $$c2025-10-27
000007648 520__ $$aThis work focuses on the cross-comparison and validation of CME modeling and arrival prediction tools. We present modeled CME propagation and expected arrival times based on several empirical and more elaborate physics-based models. We discuss the simple arrival predictions purely based on the estimated CME propagation speed and compare them with the results from the drag-based model (DBM) and the ensemble drag-based model (DBEM). Furthermore we compare the CME propagation and arrival estimates resulting from magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric modeling tools, such as EUHFORIA and/or ENLIL. We illustrate the expected CME arrival differences for selected events, including CMEs observed in October 2024 and April 2025. Finally we compare the expectations with the observed shock and flux rope arrivals at Earth via in situ (L1) measurements of the solar wind. In addition, we discuss the importance of a correct estimation of the CME properties used for the various heliospheric propagation and arrival prediction tools. We compare the differences between CME analysis based on CACTUS, SWPC CAT and STEREO-CAT tools for the selected geomagnetic storms and present some preliminary conclusions based on the results.
000007648 594__ $$aSTCE
000007648 700__ $$aManeva, Yana
000007648 700__ $$aShukhobodskaia, Daria 
000007648 700__ $$ade Patoul, Judith
000007648 773__ $$tEuropean Space Weather Week 2025, Umeå
000007648 8560_ $$fdimitrios.millas@ksb-orb.be
000007648 980__ $$aCPOSTER