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000005330 005__ 20210406104300.0
000005330 0247_ $$2DOI$$a https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2020081
000005330 037__ $$aSCART-2021-0078
000005330 100__ $$aJanssens, Jan
000005330 245__ $$aPrediction of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 using polar faculae observations
000005330 260__ $$c2021
000005330 520__ $$aBased on the monthly number of polar faculae, a forecast of the amplitude of solar cycle 25 (SC25) is provided, as well as a prediction of the number of solar flares. Faculae near both solar poles have been visually observed using a commercial off-the-shelf 20 cm Schmidt-Cassegrain telescope since 1995. The monthly averages were corrected for varying seeing conditions and the heliographic latitude of the center of the solar disk B0. From the deduced relationship between the smoothed number of monthly polar faculae during the solar cycle minimum, and the subsequent maximum of the monthly sunspot number, a prediction has been made for the amplitude of the next solar cycle. The methodology used can be considered as a precursor technique. The expected number of M- and X-class flares was calculated based on a statistical approach. The maximum of SC25 is predicted to be 118 ± 29, of similar strength than the previous SC24. Also the number of M5 or stronger flares is expected to be comparable to that of the previous solar cycle.
000005330 594__ $$aSTCE
000005330 6531_ $$apolar faculae
000005330 6531_ $$asolar cycle
000005330 6531_ $$asolar flares
000005330 6531_ $$asolar activity
000005330 6531_ $$aspace weather
000005330 773__ $$pJournal of Space Weather and Space Climate$$v11$$y2021
000005330 8560_ $$fjan.janssens@observatoire.be
000005330 85642 $$ahttps://www.swsc-journal.org/articles/swsc/full_html/2021/01/swsc200036/swsc200036.html
000005330 905__ $$apublished in
000005330 980__ $$aREFERD