000004959 001__ 4959
000004959 005__ 20201112075446.0
000004959 0247_ $$2DOI$$a10.23689/fidgeo-3860
000004959 037__ $$aSCART-2020-0145
000004959 100__ $$aCamelbeeck, Thierry
000004959 245__ $$aHow well does known seismicity between the Lower Rhine Graben and southern North Sea reflect future earthquake activity?
000004959 260__ $$c2020
000004959 520__ $$aSince the 14th century, moderate seismic activity with 14 earthquakes of magnitude MW≥5.0 occurred in Western Europe in a region extending from the Lower Rhine Graben (LRG) to the southern North Sea. In this paper, we investigate how well this seismic activity could reflect that of the future. The observed earthquake activity in the LRG is continuous and concentrates on the Quaternary normal faults delimiting the LRG, which are also the source of large surface rupturing Holocene and Late Pleistocene earthquakes. The estimated magnitude of these past earthquakes ranges from 6.3±0.3 to 7.0±0.3 while their average recurrence on individual faults varies from ten thousand to a few ten thousand years, which makes foreseeing future activity over the long-term possible. Three of the largest historical earthquakes with MW≥5.5 occurred outside the LRG. Late Quaternary activity along the fault zones suspected to be the source of two of these earthquakes, i.e. the 1580 Strait of Dover and 1692 northern Belgian Ardennes earthquakes, is very elusive if it exists. Hence, similar earthquakes would be very infrequent at these locations suggesting that the seismicity outside of the LRG would be episodic and clustered on some faults during periods of a few hundreds of years interrupted by long periods of inactivity typically lasting for some tens to hundreds of thousand years. Seismic moment release estimation and its comparison between recent geological and historical seismicity periods lead us to suggest that the high seismicity level observed between AD 1350 and AD 1700 west of the LRG would be uncommon.
000004959 594__ $$aNO
000004959 6531_ $$aSeismicity
000004959 700__ $$aVanneste, Kris
000004959 700__ $$aVerbeeck, Koen
000004959 700__ $$aGarcia-Moreno, David
000004959 700__ $$aVan Noten, Koen
000004959 700__ $$aLecocq, Thomas
000004959 773__ $$c53-72$$pHistorical Earthquakes, Paleoseismology, Neotectonics and Seismic Hazard: New Insights and Suggested Procedures$$vDGEB-Publikation Nr. 18$$y2020
000004959 8560_ $$fkoen.vannoten@observatoire.be
000004959 85642 $$ahttps://doi.org/10.23689/fidgeo-3866
000004959 905__ $$apublished in
000004959 980__ $$aREFERD