4299 20191113155638.0 CTALK-2019-0129 Podladchikova, T Development of adaptive Kalman filter for short-term forecasts of the F30 and F10.7 cm radio flux 2019 2019-11-22 Measurements of the solar microwave flux at 10.7 cm by Pentincton Observatory, Canada are widely used as a solar proxy index for the modelling of the upper atmosphere. SIDC currently provides 3-day forecasts for the F10.7 index - based on a manual analysis of the index values during the latest three Carrington rotations. We present recent results on the development of a new autonomous tool, the Self-Adjusted Solar Flux Forecasting (SASFF) http://solwww.oma.be/users/olenapo/F10.7_realtime/). The solar radioflux dynamics is modelled by a non-stationary random walk with a variable drift - and the forecast of the F10.7 index is based on an adaptive Kalman filter model which is used to identify the a priori unknown drift and variance. SASFF provides solar flux forecasts, for the next 3 days, including forecasting uncertainties. It issues alerts when the F10.7 index values are elevated due to the appearance of solar activity events. STCE WP ROB A.3/ STCE WP ROB A.3/ STCE WP ROB A.3 STCE solar microwave radiation, F107, radioflux, space weather Podladchikova, O Veronig, A 16th European Space Weather Week, Liege, Belgium elena.podladchikova@observatoire.be http://www.stce.be/esww2019/program/session_details.php?nr=17 Contributed CTALKCONT