Ref: POSTER-2018-0059

The Self-Adjusted Solar Flux Forecasting Tool (SASFF)

Podladchikova, 0 ; Marque, C ; Berghmans, D ; Stegen, K

Poster presented at 15th European Space Weather Week on 2018-11-07

Abstract: Measurements of the solar microwave flux at 10.7 cm by Pentincton Observatory, Canada are widely used as a solar proxy index for the modelling of the upper atmosphere. SIDC currently provides 3-day forecasts for the F10.7 index - based on a manual analysis of the index values during the latest three Carrington rotations. Additional considerations are taken into account when new active regions emerge or flare probability is elevated. In this work, we present recent results on the development of a new autonomous tool, the Self-Adjusted Solar Flux Forecasting (SASFF) tool http://solwww.oma.be/users/olenapo/F10.7_realtime/). The solar radioflux dynamics is modelled by a nonstationary random walk with a variable drift and the forecast of the F10.7 index is based on an adaptive Kalman filter model which is used to identify the a priori unknown drift. SASFF operates autonomously and provides solar flux forecasts, for the next 3 days, including forecasting uncertainties. In addition, it issues alerts when the F10.7 index values are elevated due to the appearance of solar activity events. The dynamics of the forecasting errors as a function of the solar cycle is discussed. It is unambiguously demonstrated the significant forecasting precision of SASFF with respect to existing forecasting approaches, using as example a number of extreme events. SASFF tool will be calibrated using solar radioflux measurements of several radio-observatories and will be further optimized to output continuous forecasts of the F10.7 index values providing automatic corrections of the atmospheric drag coefficients that are used during satellite de-orbiting operations.

Keyword(s): space weather, radioflux, solar indices, forecasting algorithms

The record appears in these collections:
Royal Observatory of Belgium > Solar Physics & Space Weather (SIDC)
Conference Contributions & Seminars > Posters
Solar-Terrestrial Centre of Excellence

 Record created 2018-10-12, last modified 2018-10-12