000007513 001__ 7513
000007513 005__ 20250204104347.0
000007513 0247_ $$2DOI$$a10.1051/0004-6361/202449530
000007513 037__ $$aSCART-2025-0112
000007513 100__ $$aRodriguez, L
000007513 245__ $$aValidation of EUHFORIA cone and spheromak coronal mass ejection models
000007513 260__ $$c2024
000007513 520__ $$aWe present validation results for calculations of arrival times and geomagnetic impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using the cone and spheromak CME models implemented in EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA). Validating numerical models is crucial for ensuring their accuracy and performance with respect to real data. Methods. We compared CME plasma and magnetic field signatures measured in situ by satellites at the L1 point with the simulation output of EUHFORIA. The validation of this model was carried out using two datasets in order to ensure a comprehensive evaluation. The first dataset focuses on 16 CMEs that arrived at Earth, offering specific insights into the model's accuracy in predicting arrival time and geomagnetic impact. Meanwhile, the second dataset encompasses all CMEs observed over eight months within Solar Cycle 24, regardless of whether or not they arrived at Earth, covering periods of both solar minimum and maximum activity. This second dataset enables a more comprehensive evaluation of the model's predictive precision in term of CME arrivals and misses. Results. Our results show that EUHFORIA provides good estimates in terms of arrival times, with root mean square error (RMSE) values of 9 hours. Regarding the number of correctly predicted ICME arrivals and misses, we find a 75% probability of detection in a 12 hour time window and 100% probability of detection in a 24 hour time window. The geomagnetic impact forecasts measured by the Kp index provide different degrees of accuracy ranging from 31% to 69%. These results validate the use of cone and spheromak CMEs for real-time space weather forecasting.
000007513 594__ $$aNO
000007513 6531_ $$aSun
000007513 6531_ $$acoronal mass ejections (CMEs)
000007513 6531_ $$asolar-terrestrial relations
000007513 6531_ $$asolar wind;
000007513 700__ $$aShukhobodskaia, D
000007513 700__ $$aNiemela, A
000007513 700__ $$aMaharana, A
000007513 700__ $$aSamara, E
000007513 700__ $$aVerbeke, C
000007513 700__ $$aMagdalenic, J
000007513 700__ $$aVansintjan, R
000007513 700__ $$aMierla, M
000007513 700__ $$aScolini, C
000007513 700__ $$aSarkar, R
000007513 700__ $$aKilpua, E
000007513 700__ $$aAsvestari, E
000007513 700__ $$aHerbst, K
000007513 700__ $$aLapenta, G
000007513 700__ $$aChaduteau, A. D
000007513 700__ $$aPomoell, J
000007513 700__ $$aPoedts, S
000007513 773__ $$c16$$pAstronomy & Astrophysics$$v689$$y2024
000007513 8560_ $$fpavai.valliappan@ksb-orb.be
000007513 905__ $$apublished in
000007513 980__ $$aREFERD