000005801 001__ 5801
000005801 005__ 20220620165733.0
000005801 037__ $$aCTALK-2022-0066
000005801 100__ $$aLagarde, Sophie
000005801 245__ $$aInsights on factors controlling rockslope failure from pre-event cracking
000005801 260__ $$c2022
000005801 269__ $$c2022-05-23
000005801 520__ $$aIn order to reduce the societal impact of mass-wasting events, we need observations to investigate the factors that control slope failure, such as the state of crack propagation along a failure plane. However, usually the failure plane is not accessible in-situ. Hence, cracks have to be monitored indirectly, for example using seismic methods. We analysed the data from a seismometer array in the Illgraben catchment, Switzerland, that had registered a series of crack propagation and mass-wasting events, leading to a main event that happened on 2 January 2013. We used a state-of-the-art machine learning technique based on hidden Markov models to detect and classify the seismic signals of crack events. We obtained the temporal evolution of three signal types: (1) single crack signal, (2) rock avalanche and (3) rockfall activity due to debris remobilization. The temporal evolution of the number of cracks showed a linear trend in the weeks prior to the main mass-wasting event and, in the hours preceding the main event, a sigmoidal exponential growth. Using these observations, we propose a mechanistic model to describe the rupture of the failure plane. The model considers the internal parameter of the total crack boundary length as the primary control on failure plane evolution, in addition to the previously suggested crack propagation velocity control parameter. According to this model, internal parameters appear to be the dominant control for the failure plane growth at a slope scale.
000005801 594__ $$aNO
000005801 700__ $$aDietze, Michael
000005801 700__ $$aHammer, Conny
000005801 700__ $$aZeckra, Martin
000005801 700__ $$aVoigtländer, Anne
000005801 700__ $$aIllien, Luc
000005801 700__ $$aSchöpa, Anne
000005801 700__ $$aHirschberg, Jacob
000005801 700__ $$aHovius, Niels
000005801 700__ $$aTurowski, Jens M.
000005801 773__ $$tEGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria
000005801 8560_ $$fmartin.zeckra@observatory.be
000005801 85642 $$ahttps://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU22/EGU22-748.html
000005801 906__ $$aContributed
000005801 980__ $$aCTALKCONT