000004322 001__ 4322
000004322 005__ 20200610170518.0
000004322 037__ $$aCTALK-2019-0133
000004322 100__ $$aLefèvre, Laure
000004322 245__ $$aAdvanced Statistics to model the Sunspot Number series
000004322 260__ $$c2019
000004322 269__ $$c2019-07-09
000004322 520__ $$aWe present the determination of uncertainties and monitoring of the modern part of the sunspot series and possible applications to past data and previous developed techniques. Uncertainties would help improve the accurate reconstruction of the long-term evolution of solar activity, in support of multiple applications in solar physics and geo-sciences. In this context, we present results obtained by the VALUSUN project (sidc.be/valusun): they include a constant quality control and monitoring of the most recent part of the series and the inclusion of significant error bars through a complete modeling of the series.  We detail the first comprehensive noise model of sunspot counts in a multiplicative framework. We estimate the distribution of errors in various regimes of solar activity and for each component of the sunspot number: the number of spots (Ns), the number of groups (Ng) and the composite (Nc=Ns+10Ng). Key results are an estimation of the short-term error distribution, and an estimation of long-term drifts specific to each observing station.  This new work on the behavior of sunspot counts in modern data will enable us to get new insight on how to stitch the sunspot series from past observers together. We will see how the derived statistical properties could be taken into account in different methods. Following the recalibration of the Sunspot Number in 2015 we are now able to envision a reconstruction of the series, with associated statistics.
000004322 536__ $$aBR/$$c165/$$fA3/VAL-U-SUN
000004322 594__ $$aSTCE
000004322 700__ $$aMathieu, Sophie
000004322 700__ $$avon Sachs, Rainer
000004322 700__ $$aDelouille, Véronique
000004322 700__ $$aClette, Frédéric
000004322 773__ $$tSpace Climate 7, Montreal, Canada
000004322 8560_ $$flaure.lefevre@observatoire.be
000004322 906__ $$aContributed
000004322 980__ $$aCTALKCONT